September 16, 2026

George Orwell once warned us that we all have a tendency to overestimate the amount of damage we cause to our enemies during an air raid and now it seems that the converse is also true. For months, most Americans assumed that Iran had done little to no damage to our forces since the death count of American military personnel averages around 2 per month.

However, a recently released report by the DOD confirms rumors that have been swirling for months that the damage to our buildings and equipment has been massive. So maybe we have a tendency to overestimate the damage we think we can do to our enemies and underestimate the damage that they can inflict on us. A more reasonable accounting of the damage that could be done in war might help us to avoid embarking on these endeavors in the first place.